Your challenge

Predict the temperature anomly (in °C) of the

Your challenge

The annual Global Climate Report

for 2030. The annual Global Climate Report 2017 [1]

[1] for 2017 shows that the global temperature anomaly was +0.84°C above the "pre-industrial average", 0.10 °C less than 2016's +0.94°C, the highest anomaly recorded so far. pre-industrial average, following the record year of 2016's +0.94°C.

Predict the temperature anomly (in °C) of the annual Global Climate Report for 2030. 

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The global climate

The IPCC 5th Assessment Report  [2] linked warming of the atmosphere and oceans to the emission of greenhouse gasses, stating that "it "It is extremely likelythat human influence is the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950". The report also forecasts some impacts of further emissions, such as an increase in acidification of the ocean.

(Wikipedia: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report )The international Paris Agreement signatory countries declared an intent to mitigate the effects of global warming 

To mitigate the effects of global warming, there is an international consensus known as the Paris Agreement [3] to limit global temperature rise (by lowering emissions) to well below +2 °C 

(by lowering emissions). The US since has declared an intent to withdraw from the agreement. (Wikipedia: Paris Agreement Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement )Recently, a Special IPCC Reportpredicts

. Recently, a special report[4]  postulated that a temperature rise of more than 1.5°C could already cause challenges for ecosystems and human wellbeing. (Wikipedia: Special Report on Global Warming Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Global_Warming_of_1.5_%C2%B0C )

NOTES:

1. These possible impacts could be part of a series of further prediction questions on Prediki, if there is audience interest.
2. The degree of desirability or undesirability of these predicted impacts may differ for different persons depending on individual circumstances.

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The past years

The charts below show the global mean temperature anomaly for land and ocean temperatures since the start of the industrial revolution (left) and the last few years (right).

1880 - 2017	2012 - 2017
	Link: /mediadb/image/e5bc53d4d5354b94ac022bfdc8315fc0/	Link: /mediadb/image/e5bc53d4d5354b94ac022bfdc8315fc0/

Sources: Berkeley Earth - Land and Ocean Summary (left), NOAA's annual Global Climate Report (right).

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Sources

1. NOAA's Global Climate Reportfor 2017.
2. Wikipedia article on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report .
3. Wikipedia article on the Paris Agreement Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement .
4. Wikipedia article on the Special Report on Global Warming Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Global_Warming_of_1.5_%C2%B0C .